On November 3, 2020, the United States will usher in the 59th presidential election. On the evening of October 22, us time, US President trump and his rival Biden were on the same stage again for the last TV debate before the election. The new crown epidemic, economic development, ethnic issues, climate change, national security and leadership have become the focus of the debate. Of course, in terms of national security, naturally, China's issues such as "trade friction" cannot escape. In fact, since the founding of the people's Republic of China in 1949, the discussion on China has always been a necessary tradition during the US general election. Until today, "China issue" is gradually moving from the edge to the core. From the historical data, every US election will have a short-term impact on China's macro economy. Through the three key indicators of "scientific and technological strength", "industrial manufacturing capacity" and "national governance efficiency" in Sino US competition, we can find that China is gradually achieving steady growth of the overall economy in the competitive shock.

1、 Where we talk about competition, we talk about China

With less than a month to go before the US general election, Biden and trump both actively played the "China card" while preparing for the general election.

For example, a while ago, trump made a strong attack and closed the Chinese Consulate General in Houston. Relevant information shows that the US side's accusation is: China is engaged in espionage activities here and is trying to deter American citizens. Subsequently, China also responded by closing the US consulate in Chengdu. Undoubtedly, playing the "China card" has now become the core strategy of trump and his campaign team, and "attacking China" will help to transfer the dissatisfaction of the American people to the improper administration of the White House.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the US economy will shrink by 6.6% this year. In the face of these bad news, Kushner, the actual trader of Trump's campaign team, believes that,

"Attacking China is an important way to rebuild Trump's voter base.".

On the issue of Biden, trump was even more astonishing in an interview with American conservative media on August 11, saying that if he loses the US election in November this year, China will occupy the United States and Americans will have to learn Chinese. It can be seen that trump actually deliberately described Biden as a candidate in the marriage.

Of course, the credibility of Trump's statement is questionable. After all, Trump's grandsons and granddaughters began learning Chinese very early. According to people's daily.com, their Chinese teacher said that Trump's granddaughter, Arabella, had been studying Chinese at a language institute in New York since she was 18 months old, and her younger brother Joseph came to take Chinese lessons less than one year old.

However, as early as April this year, U.S. President trump called Biden "Beijing Biden" in his campaign advertisement, pointing out that he had been too friendly to China in the past, and to stop China, he had to stop Biden. The ad quotes Biden in a speech in May 2019: "will China eat our lunch? Come on, China is not a competitor of the United States.

On May 1, 2019, Joe Biden, the former vice president of the United States, publicly expressed his views on the China issue at a rally of supporters, "I mean, they (China) are not our competitors.".

In this regard, Biden is not a "good kind". Also in April this year, the Biden team launched a video advertisement attacking trump, accusing trump of praising China's anti epidemic achievements more than ten times from January to February. Biden said that if he becomes President, he will certainly force China to submit and allow experts from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and prevention to visit China.

However, it should be noted that although Biden plays the "China card" as much as trump, neither of them has any "pro China" thinking. Biden has long been recognized by the media as "very close to personal relations" with China. In 2013, he told the media that if the United States and China can handle the bilateral relations well, "the opportunities are unlimited.".

However, in the last two years of his term, Biden's views on China have gradually changed due to the change of Obama's dialogue policy. At that time, Biden's adviser, Erie Ratner, and others had provided a rigorous analysis report on China's trade and military expansion and expressed deep concern about it.

Of course, it's not once or twice that the candidates for the next US President use China as a means of attacking their opponents. This has almost become an inevitable thing for the United States to do over the years after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

"China issue" is also step by step to the core position of today.

Relevant data show that China was not involved in the presidential TV debates between 1960 and 1988. On the contrary, the Soviet Union was a frequent name at that time. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, "China" officially appeared in the US presidential election in 1996. When Clinton, as a presidential candidate, emphasized how to create a fair competition environment for American enterprises, he talked about the situation of intellectual property rights in China.

In 2000, Bush called China a "strategic competitor" in his campaign. In the 2008 presidential election debate, China was repeatedly referred to as "America's creditor and competitor". In the 2016 US election, trump mentioned China many times in his campaign speech. The first thing he did after he became president was to launch a trade war against China, which has continued to this day.

2、 Short term fluctuation and long term economic impact

Of course, playing the "China card" is an election method for almost every American presidential candidate since the Soviet Union. As for who can really implement it to the end, judging from the history of the US election, it seems that trump is the only one.

As for other presidential candidates, no matter how much they promised to be "tough" with China at that time. However, once elected, they will respond in accordance with their established policy. They are all professional and pragmatic politicians. Bush, Clinton, Reagan and Nixon are all good examples. In the campaign of George W. Bush, he called China a "strategic competitor" of the United States. After the 9 / 11 terrorist attacks, he called China a "stakeholder" and advocated that China should continue to interact with China, encourage it to integrate into the international community and become a responsible power.

However, no matter what kind of "China card" is played by the United States, "economy" is always the core proposition that all previous presidents must face. From the Reagan side (1981-1988), the reform of supply side, the strengthening of government intervention by the Bush Administration (1989-1992), the encouragement of innovation, the revival of the US economy in the Clinton era (1993-2000), the real estate bubble in the George W. Bush era (2001-2008) and the continued QE policy in the Obama era (2009-2016), the economic and policy directions of each presidential term have obvious characteristics and changes.

Some people have counted the impact of the presidential election on US stocks. According to relevant data, the average increase of S & P500 in the past 20 general elections has reached 5.63%, indicating that there is an election market.

According to the article "what is the impact of election year on US stocks", there is no significant difference in annual performance between general election year and non election year. In the 15 presidential elections from 1960 to 2016, excluding the extreme circumstances of the financial crisis in 2008, the annual average performance of the S & P 500 index was 10.9%, which was slightly higher than the average performance of 8.8% in all the years in this period.

Generally speaking, the election year will increase the market uncertainty, and the short-term market volatility will inevitably occur, especially near the election day. However, there is no clear evidence to prove the existence of the election market so far. However, from the perspective of re-election, the risk assets such as crude oil, U.S. stocks and industrial metals outperformed those of unsuccessful re-election, while gold lost those of unsuccessful re-election, and the performance of bonds showed little difference.

3、 China's "gold nine silver ten" and America's "October surprise"

So, since the US election will have a great impact on global capital, what kind of impact will it have on China's A-shares?

According to the opening degree and development degree of China's financial industry, the investment means that Chinese investors can contact and contact most is the A-share market. Relevant data shows that during the previous US general election, a shares rose more or less. In the past 76 general elections, a shares rose four times.

In fact, one belt, one road policy and the opening up process of finance are accelerating. The capital market has become more and more close to the global financial market. However, due to the unique national conditions of China and the fundamental aspects of the capital market that have not been completely opened up, the impact of global financial risks on us is relatively difficult to quantify. A Ming.

However, from the perspective of Trump's first run for president and his first term of office, economic issues are the core of his world outlook, and "farmers" are the first one he strives for politically. However, as the game between China and the United States spreads from trade to 5g and other fields such as science and technology, stock market, judicature and diplomacy, some subtle changes may occur in the strategy of Sino US relations with China.

For example, for the domestic science and technology innovation sector, from the comparative analysis of the US sanctions against ZTE and Huawei and the recent Tik tok incident, the prospect of Sino US science and technology game is not optimistic. Previously, in the ZTE and Huawei incidents, there was an obvious contradiction between the interests of the U.S. government and the U.S. high tech companies. In order to curb China's "made in China 2025" plan, the U.S. government specifically imposed restrictions on Huawei under the background that nearly 65% of Qualcomm's profits came from the Chinese market. However, recently, the U.S. government seems to have changed its strategy for the rise of China's science and technology, such as forcibly acquiring Tik tok, which is owned by byte hop, and "blocking" Tencent's wechat app in the United States. This is a high-tech technology closer to the consumer side, which has changed the internal pattern of the previous Sino US science and technology game.

On the whole, if trump makes progress in this election and even re elected, it may have a negative impact on China's science and technology innovation sector. Of course, this is only a more pessimistic judgment from a macro perspective. In fact, on the micro level, on October 21, China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the IPO registration of ant group's science and technology innovation board. The listing plan of a + H is bound to bring a lot of vitality to China's science and technology innovation sector. According to the capital market estimates, ant listing is expected to become the world's largest IPO this year.